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credit: Maria Emelianova / FIDE
The Candidates Event kicks off in Madrid, with the opening ceremony going down on the Palacio de Santona on June sixteenth, 17:00 UTC, and the primary spherical to be performed on June seventeenth, 13:00 UTC.
Aside from the five hundred,000€ prize fund distributed amongst the eight gamers, the winner of the Candidates Event additionally qualifies to play a match towards the World Champion – Magnus Carlsen, to find out who’s worthy of the World Champion crown. Carlsen has gained 5 World Championships thus far, however has instructed he might not defend it once more – though evidently defending towards Firouzja or Liren can be extra prone to coax him to defend for a sixth time.
Lichess shall be protecting the video games day by day, with PGNs of the video games broadcast. As well as, we’ll be producing article recaps, a number of annotated video games by GM Nijat Abasov, and day by day video recaps by WGM-elect Jesse February.
The contributors
The 8 gamers competing for the precise to problem Magnus within the World Championship Match are:
- Ian Nepomniachtchi because the runner-up of the earlier World Championship match;
- Teimour Radjabov who was supplied a wildcard by FIDE after him withdrawing from the earlier Candidates Event because of the pandemic state of affairs;
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda because the winner of the 2021 World Cup;
- Alireza Firouzja and Fabiano Caruana for ending first and second respectively in FIDE Grand Swiss Event 2021;
- Hikaru Nakamura and Richard Rapport because the winner and runner up, respectively, of the FIDE Grand Prix 2022;
- Ding Liren acquired the final obtainable spot because of having the best score as of the Might 2022 FIDE score listing (excluding the reigning champion, Magnus Carlsen). He changed Sergey Karjakin, who acquired a six month ban from the FIDE Ethics and Disciplinary Fee on March 21, 2022, and was subsequently disqualified from the Candidates.
This Candidates Event would be the 2nd for Ian Nepomniachtchi, Hikaru Nakamura, and Ding Liren, the third for Teimour Radjabov (not counting his 2020 withdrawal) and the 4th for Fabiano Caruana, with Nepomniachtchi and Caruana having gained it as soon as.
Thus far, Smyslov is the one participant to win the Candidates match two consecutive occasions (in a double spherical robin format – different gamers have achieved it whereas the knockout format was used). Nepomniachtchi has the chance to be the second to realize it – now we have to attend to see if he’ll succeed.
credit: Maria Emelianova / FIDE
Predictions and possibilities
Utilizing face to face information and Elo calculators, it’s potential to find out what the statistics predict about who’s almost definitely to win. Relying on the precise mannequin used, the conclusions are that Ding Liren or Fabiano Caruana are thought-about to be the favourites to win the occasion (each someplace between 21% – 30% possibilities), adopted by Firouzja at between 14% – 21% possibilities. Roughly 5 – 10% behind Firouzja come Duda and Nepomniactchi, with Nakamura, Radjabov and Rapport citing the rear.
Actuality is after all more durable to foretell than what numbers recommend, so we’d recommend not studying too deeply into what the statistics suggest. Additional, there are a number of unknowns – and human elements – surrounding the gamers. Any of those extra elements may tilt the Candidates into one of many gamers’ fingers:
- Ding Liren got here off a powerful 28 classical video games in 28 days to satisfy a minimal sport requirement, however with qualifying into the match so final minute it could possibly be potential his preparation has suffered. Liren additionally appeared to be much less energetic than the opposite gamers within the Candidates, even throughout the pandemic, so maybe has some extra rust to shake off.
- Fabiano Caruana just isn’t new to the Candidates, having performed in it thrice already – so nerves positively gained’t be as a lot of a problem for him as the opposite gamers. However in some ways, Caruana nonetheless appears to be re-finding himself and his model after his separation from long-time coach and second, Rustam Kasimdzhanov.
- Alireza Firouzja has had a historic score climb, culminating in turning into the youngest ever participant to interrupt into the 2800 membership. Firouzja hasn’t performed a lot since that historic achievement, focusing completely on making ready for the Candidates. Solely time will inform if that has made him rusty, and even sharper. It’s additionally value noting that Firouzja has traditionally struggled to beat Caruana, with no wins towards him (+0 =4 -2) – however however, nearly considers Duda free factors with 4 wins towards him in 5 encounters (+4 =1 -0).
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda had a formidable World Cup and in March this yr made the finals of the Champions Chess Tour, dropping solely towards Carlsen. However there are some questions on how he might carry out in a double spherical robin occasion (versus knockout just like the World Cup and Champions Chess Tour) towards very elite competitors. Duda has 26 complete video games towards each different Candidate within the match.
- Ian Nepomniachtchi can have had looking out questions concerning his stamina and selection of seconds (different elite gamers, contracted to assist one other participant put together) after his devastating outcome within the 2021 World Championship match. On the similar time, he’s had a yr to construct up his stamina, be taught from his errors, and kind a brand new workforce. If Nepomniachtchi is in kind, he’s a superb participant as his Candidates 2020 outcomes present.
- Hikaru Nakamura has blasted again into elite stage chess after a two yr hiatus the place he grew to become a streaming and influencer phenom. He’s notched up two 2850+ performances in fast succession. It appears he has safety, stability and peace of thoughts to concentrate on chess now – however equally, he may have new competing priorities at play – like worrying about how a lot streamer time he’s lacking out on! If he does qualify, traditionally Carlsen has been Nakamura’s kryptonite, with just one loss throughout 41 encounters (+14 =26 -1 in Carlsen’s favour).
- Richard Rapport has lengthy been recognized for thrilling, artistic chess – however he’s needed to rein it in somewhat to see his score and potential soar. Thought-about to be somewhat weaker than many different gamers within the area at opening preparation, it’s potential he could possibly be outfoxed early on in video games. The Hungarian’s wry sense of humour additionally has some questioning his self-belief, however don’t be fooled – no person could make it to, and preserve their place within the high 10 score lists with out unshakeable motivation.
- Teimour Radjabov was the youngest Grandmaster in historical past when he gained the title in 2001, and over his lifetime achieved lofty heights. However, his outcomes and kind over the previous couple of years has regarded lackluster for this stage of competitors, and he just lately had fairly a foul Norway Chess match. It’s potential he was saving his prep and keenness for the Candidates – but it surely’s additionally potential out of all of the gamers within the area, he’s struggling most with motivation.
If it goes to tiebreaks, Firouzja and Nakamura are recognized to be most comfy with quicker time controls. Rapport, Duda and Nepomniachtchi are additionally all sturdy in speedy and blitz – though Duda is present European Fast Champion, and has a number of sturdy current leads to blitz and speedy time controls.
Caruana has regularly been cited as quicker time controls being considered one of his weaknesses, however following his loss to Carlsen within the 2018 World Championships on speedy tiebreaks, he has considerably improved his energy in quicker time controls. Ding Liren is robust on paper – however given his inactivity he has dropped off the energetic score lists and is presently a little bit of an unknown amount. Radjabov appears to be weaker when in comparison with this area in quicker time controls.
The schedule
Spherical | Date and time in UTC |
---|---|
Opening Ceremony | June sixteenth, 17:00 |
Spherical 1 | June seventeenth, 13:00 |
Spherical 2 | June 18th, 13:00 |
Spherical 3 | June nineteenth, 13:00 |
Spherical 4 | June twenty first, 13:00 |
Spherical 5 | June twenty second, 13:00 |
Spherical 6 | June twenty third, 13:00 |
Spherical 7 | June twenty fifth, 13:00 |
Spherical 8 | June twenty sixth, 13:00 |
Spherical 9 | June twenty seventh, 13:00 |
Spherical 10 | June twenty ninth, 13:00 |
Spherical 11 | June thirtieth, 13:00 |
Spherical 12 | July 1st, 13:00 |
Spherical 13 | July third, 13:00 |
Spherical 14 | July 4th, 13:00 |
Tiebreaks | July fifth, 13:00 |
The format
The Candidates Event is a double round-robin match; The gamers obtain 120 minutes for the primary 40 strikes, adopted by 60 minutes for the following 20 strikes and quarter-hour for the remainder of the sport, plus a 30 seconds increment ranging from transfer 61. June twentieth, June twenty fourth, June twenty eighth and July 2nd shall be relaxation days.
In case of a tie for the primary place, tiebreaks shall be performed as following:
Stage 1
- If two gamers are tied, a two-game match between them shall be performed, with a time management of 15+10 (quarter-hour plus a ten seconds increment per transfer), and the colors decided by a drawing of tons.
- Within the reasonably unlikely occasion of between three and 6 gamers being tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of 15+10 (quarter-hour plus a ten seconds increment per transfer).
- Within the most likely most unlikely occasion of seven or all eight gamers being tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of 10+5 (10 minutes plus a 5 seconds increment per transfer).
Stage 2 (to be performed provided that there’s a tie after stage 1)
- If two gamers are tied, a two-game match between them shall be performed, with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer), and the colors decided by a drawing of tons.
- If greater than two gamers are tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer).
Stage 3 (to be performed provided that there’s a tie after stage 2)
- A knockout match is to be held. Every match will consist of 1 sport with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer) and the colors decided by a drawing of tons. If greater than two gamers are tied, the brackets shall be decided by a drawing of tons.
- In case the sport is drawn, one other sport with the identical time management and colors reversed shall be performed. This process shall be adopted till there’s a decisive outcome.
Whom are you rooting for in FIDE Candidates 2022? Who do you assume that would be the subsequent challenger to face Magnus Carlsen within the World Championship Match? We’re ready to learn within the feedback!
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